Romney's Great Expectations

Former Gov. Mitt Romney took to the airwaves in a series of early voting states last week with an ad aimed at introducing himself to voters. But his campaign distributed a memo over the weekend warning supporters not to expect too much too soon.

The memo, which was penned by the Massachusetts Republican's senior strategist Alex Gage, aims to simultaneously lower expectations for the governor while arguing that he is in a better position at the moment than past governors who have won their party's nomination.

"At this point in the cycle, national polls are entirely a reflection of name identification, not voters' views of candidates," writes Gage, who has earned a reputation as a microtargeting guru. Romney currently is in third or fourth place in most states and national polls behind Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and, at times, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia.

Gage notes that three "small state" governors like Romney -- Jimmy Carter of Georgia, Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts and Bill Clinton of Arkansas -- were all lower in polling at a similar point in their races. In 1975, Carter was at a mere 1 percent in a Gallup survey. Dukakis matched that level of support in 1987. Clinton boasted a whopping 2 percent in 1991. Romney, as Gage points out, is at an "impressive" 5 percent in the most recent Gallup poll.

"Gov. Romney is already well-positioned compared to previous candidates who came from similar backgrounds to win their party's nomination, but we should be careful not to expect to see movement in the polls until voters seriously begin to pay attention to the race," wrote Gage in the memo addressed to "Romney for President Leadership."

Gage adds that "observers in the media will inevitably question why our numbers don't immediately rise after being up on the airwaves but we must remain patient."

Dang media.

Gage is right to suggest that national polls at this early stage are far from predictive. And he is right that Romney will not immediately surpass McCain or Giuliani simply because he has begun running television ads in certain states. But Romney must show real movement in places like Iowa and New Hampshire over the next few months if he wants to remain in the first-tier of candidates.

Romney has great potential as a candidate, but turning that potential into real support is his challenge.